- 宣布獨立將導致戰爭
- 宣布獨立並不會改善台灣現狀，甚至將取消現有的權利
- 台灣經濟過度仰賴於中國，宣布獨立將重創台灣經濟
Taiwan has been struggling to maintain a stable relationship with its diplomatic allies, while China, Taiwan’s biggest economic partner and an influential country around the world, continues to suppress Taiwan. While some see a declaration of independence as the ultimate panacea to the present crisis, Taiwan declaring itself as a country would mean facing a whole new set of challenges.
China’s influence has made it difficult for Taiwan to participate in international venues. Also, Taiwan’s heavy economic reliance on China often becomes Beijing’s bargaining chip during negotiations. Unable to join regional trade agreements, China has forced Taiwan to enhance its relations with the Mainland, giving Beijing more influence over Taipei.
“To maintain the present status quo”, is the principle of Taiwan’s present cross-strait policy; neither will Taiwan admit to being a part of China nor will it declare independence. However, any action steering away from unification would only aggravate China and cause Beijing to more aggressively oppress Taiwan.
Of China’s list of “unacceptable behaviors”, declaring independence is no doubt the riskiest of options available to Taipei. Declaring independence would result directly in a war.
To announce Taiwan as a country means introducing a new country to the world, where territorial bounds, allies, and national property that belonged to the Republic of China (ROC) would be left to negotiation. In other words, whatever belongs to the ROC today would not necessarily be ceded to an independent Taiwan with a change in legal status.
Also, China could still act as a huge obstacle when searching for allies. Countries concerned about relations with China still wouldn’t show their support, leaving Taiwan in more serious isolation from the world.
Under the present status, Taiwan is allowed to operate independently of China in various venues; as part of the WTO, when participating in the Olympics under the name “Chinese Taipei”, and most importantly, as its own sovereign polity. Despite its vague status, this situation allows Taiwan the opportunity to negotiate with China and therefore benefit from its economy as well as run its own affairs and largely chart its own course.
Moreover, Beijing has more than once emphasized its stance on Taiwan issue: war is inevitable if Taiwan declared independence.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has to take action to show their control over “internal” affairs; should Taiwan succeed in becoming independent, it would cast doubt over CCP sovereignty and potentially encourage citizens in “unstable” regions like Hong Kong and Tibet to do the same.
Therefore, declaring independence would not protect us from China’s influence; instead, it allows China the perfect excuse to invade. Taiwan has more than once asked for other nations’, the US especially, for support; however, there was never a guarantee that the US would come to Taiwan’s aid.
When the invasion happens after Taiwan declares independence, it would be merciless and Taiwan could be left with no allies and few options.
Taiwan is not yet prepared to deal with the outcomes of declaring independence: war, panic, isolation, and unexpected stakes need to be taken into consideration. Independence is not the ultimate solution to present problems.
Therefore, Taiwan should be hyper aware of its relationship with China and prepare for every possible outcome. It’s impossible for Taiwan to declare independence without it backfiring, therefore maintaining the status quo is a better solution.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Taipei Teen Tribune, Englist, nor any employees of the aforementioned organizations.
I fully agree with the idea that declaring independence could have dire consequences which should be very carefully considered. I am curious to know what the author as a young Taiwanese person sees as the answer over the long run (30-60 years perhaps)? Ambiguous status forever or working in some direction to achieve a situation where a firm choice can be made? In the authors opinion, what should that direction be?
Did US consider “dire consequences” when it declared independence?? Funny how you guys oppose something that is common for a birth of a country. Not all wars should be avoided, especially when you are in the right to resist a authoritarian government. The sheeps can go back to sleep, but many Taiwanese including myself are ready to take arms, let’s try. I cannot wait.
You need to consider the nuclear war, and the US wouldn’t allow Taiwan to be the first domino to start the nuclear war. Imagine this, Taiwan declares independence – China attacks Taiwan – US, Japan, Australia, and perhaps India helps Taiwan – Seeing there’s a chance Pakistan attacks India on Kashmir – Seeing US distracted, Russia attacks Ukraine and Baltic states – EU declares war to Russia – US also needs to defend Europe – Seeing US distracted either, Israel invades Palestine; Arab league declares war on Israel – Seeing no chance better, Iran attacks Arab league – Then US also entitles to protect Israel and the middle east at peace because of the oil supply – And many other countries who have territorial claims or historic grievance(s) will also declare war – if some bad things or unfavorable turn of events happen to nuclear power countries (say China or Russia or India or Pakistan or UK or France or even the US) then nuclear will be definitely dropped not only to Taipei but all major cities including those from the list OR seeing how hectic the world is, some nuclear power countries are tempted to use nuclear power to finish the war quickly.
This paragraph is written in a anti-history sense, ignoring several history facts. First, the Constitution of Taiwan island regime claims itself as a Chinese state, contending the China postition in the international society. In such sense, the current issue between Taiwan and China is recongnized as the extension of Chinese Civil war. Second, the current status quo haven’t stopped China from invasion. Furthermore, the Chinese identity in Taiwanese regime has justified and encouraged such invasion, because both state claims that Taiwan is a part of China, at least in a cultural sense.
Can the US defend Taiwan indefinitely? “China doesnt need to be miltary peer of US shd it attack Taiwan. Would any US President sacrifice the 7th Fleet for Taiwan independence?
If thr answer is no, Taiwan better get ready for the day of reckoning. As China continues its military upgrade, the US would think twice about defence of Taiwan.
Imho, Taiwan can only become independent if the US were willing to have a war with China
igniting ww3.
It’s all about political will. Imho, China can’t do anything if other countries decided to officially recognise Taiwan. The world knows that Taiwan is an independent state. They recognises Taiwan’s government, passport, currency, etc. They also have TECO (Taiwan’s de facto embassy) with their country. Some even offer visa-free travel to Taiwanese people.
Taiwan is independent as it needs not Beijing’s approval in whatever it does unlike HK, Macau, Tibet, etc.
The day will come when the rest of the world gets fed up with China and establishes diplomatic relations with Taiwan just like the 15 countries Taiwan has diplomatic ties with.
I Like your style Howi Lim. Hope it,s going to happen soon. No Conflict, no Bloodshed, just an independent Taiwan, focused on determining it,s own Destiny.